5 trends shaping N.C. politics

Political scientist Michael Bitzer says less ticket-splitting, growing partisan divides and a surge in unaffiliated voters are changing the state's political landscape

by Tony Mecia

The Charlotte Ledger

North Carolina remains one of the nation's most competitive political battlegrounds, but beneath its closely divided electorate are increasingly predictable voting patterns that are shaping this year’s election and future ones, one of the state’s leading political scientists said Tuesday.

Speaking on Election Day before the polls closed, political scientist Michael Bitzer of Catawba College outlined some of the forces driving the 2026 midterm elections in a speech to Charlotte Rotary.

He said the 2026 election is shaping up to be a “classic midterm” election, in which the president’s party loses seats in Congress and in down-ballot races.

He described North Carolina as a battleground state in which neither major party has a decisive statewide advantage. Some of the dynamics, Bitzer said, have been changing as the state has grown.

His analysis of elections since 2008 found that Republicans have received about 51% of votes in federal races, while Democrats have won about 51% in races for statewide offices such as governor.

Among the trends he identified:

◼️ Ticket-splitting is becoming less common: In 2004, North Carolina voters backed Republican President George W. Bush by 12 percentage points while re-electing Democratic Gov. Mike Easley by 12 points — a 24-point swing between the two races that showed that many voters were comfortable voting for candidates of different parties.

Today, Bitzer said, such differences have narrowed to roughly 5 or 6 percentage points.

“The swing vote still matters in North Carolina, but it is now the power of the party bases that really do influence a lot of North Carolina politics,” he said.

◼️ Geography increasingly defines political preferences: Charlotte and other major urban centers typically vote about 70% Democratic, Bitzer said. Meanwhile, surrounding suburban counties such as Gaston, Lincoln and Iredell generally vote about 65% Republican. Rural counties tend to vote around 60% Republican.

The most competitive territory is the suburban portions of urban counties, including areas of Mecklenburg outside Charlotte.

“That is where the elections are oftentimes for statewide races won or lost,” Bitzer said.

Those divisions mean that “within a purple state, we have three distinctive regions that are lopsided for one party over the other and one truly competitive region.”

◼️ Unaffiliated voters are an emerging force: Unaffiliated voters account for about 40% of North Carolina's 7.9 million registered voters, but their political preferences are difficult to predict.

“You unaffiliateds are making my life difficult!” he joked. “Pick a side, will you?”

Unaffiliated voters also historically turn out at lower rates than registered Democrats and Republicans. But that pattern could be changing.

Unaffiliated voters cast over 50% more early ballots in 2026 than they did four years earlier, potentially making them a more influential part of the electorate. Their growing numbers, however, don't necessarily translate into an advantage for either party.

◼️ Economic concerns are shaping political attitudes: A Catawba College/YouGov survey found that 75% of North Carolinians reported substantial financial pressure from rising prices. Those experiencing greater pressure were more likely to disapprove of President Donald Trump and support Democratic candidates.

◼️ Early voting continues to grow: North Carolina recorded 2.8 million early votes ahead of Tuesday's election, up from 2.1 million four years earlier.

It’s unclear if these patterns are lasting changes or temporary reactions to the national political environment.

Tuesday’s election will give Bitzer and other political scientists more data to understand North Carolina voters’ shifting preferences.

Tony Mecia is executive editor of The Charlotte Ledger. Reach him at tony@cltledger.com.